Interview with Hal Klepack

After the recent visit to Havana of Russian warships, Belly of the Beast journalist Liz Oliva Fernández interviewed Hal Klepak, professor emeritus of Latin American and other strategic studies in military history at the Royal Military College of Canada. 

Klepak has written numerous books about the Cuban military and other Latin American militaries. He also served as an advisor to the foreign and defense ministers of Canada as well as the commander of the Canadian Army on Latin American issues. 

Klepak puts the visit of the Russian ships in context, responds to the question of whether they represented a threat to the United States, and explains how the U.S. government’s economic war against Cuba has pushed the island closer to Russia.

TRANSCRIPT

Liz Oliva Fernández:

Welcome. My name is Liz Oliva Fernández and today we're going to be speaking with Hal Klepak. Hal, welcome to Belly of the Beast.

Hal Klepak:

Thank you very much, Liz!

Liz Oliva Fernández:

Hal, could you introduce yourself please?

Hal Klepak:

I'm a professor emeritus of Latin American and other strategic studies and military history at the Royal Military College of Canada.

And I've written a number of books on the Cuban military and other Latin American militaries. And that's really my specialization in academia.

I was also advisor to both the foreign and defense ministers, as well as the commander of the army in Canada on Latin American issues.

And, of course, Cuba is always a very important part of any of that.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

Recently, Russian warships and a submarine visited Havana. What were they doing here?

Hal Klepak:

The first thing to remember about this is it's absolutely normal. Most navies do something called showing the flag. And showing the flag is not necessarily, an a statement that you agree with the government in question, although obviously the Russian visit is that. But showing the flag is something centuries old, where countries simply show that they're present and that their navies matter and that they matter in particular regions of the world. In fact, the Russians come every few years and visit. They don't visit anything as often as the British do or the French do, or even the Dutch or the Canadians do but they do occasionally come. And there's no doubt that at this particular moment in Cuban history, It's a statement of Russian support and Russian gratitude for Cuba's support in the Ukraine war.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

I remember that not so long ago, Havana was full of US cruise ships.How and when did they get replaced by Russian warships?

Hal Klepak:

I don't think they were replaced by them, but there's no question that they're on the same docks, for example. This is really the Obama period when this flourished, when the first American, a cruise ships, put in and of course, with the Trump administration's clamp down, which has been sustained by the Obama Biden administration. There's a kind of irony to the fact that the same, shipping facilities in Havana Harbor that were used to, host not very long ago, American ships during the, during the opening with Cuba under the Obama years are now being used, for Russian ships to dock at.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

Did this visit of Russian warships to Havana represent a threat to the USA?

Hal Klepak:

Well, I think it means no threat to the United States, not even a significant problem for the United States. And that's why the Pentagon says it isn't worried, because it's not. And while it obviously is connected, with Cuba's support to the Ukraine [war], and Russia support for Cuba's disastrous economic situation, it doesn't go much further than that. If they really wanted to do something serious, they could deploy serious forces. But of course, that's the last thing they've done in this case, and I think it will remain the last thing they're attempting to do. Both, because they're busy in Europe with a war on, and because Cuba is not a very high priority. Although it does show to the Americans that the Russians can still be present, even if at a very slow, small level, that they can be close to the United States in areas where the United States would like them not to be.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

Is there any difference between a nuclear submarine and a nuclear powered submarine?

Hal Klepak:

You put your finger on it. There are no missiles on a submarine. Most navies now have nuclear powered submarines because they can go further without coming to the surface.  You can go on very long cruises, like going to Cuba, from the Baltic without actually ever surfacing.  The idea that this is some kind of submarine, as we saw in war movies or in potential war movies of carrying lots and lots of missiles that would strike the United States. Well, that's simply not true.  It's only one ship and one submarine and an ocean where the Americans have dozens and dozens of submarines, hundreds of of, ships of the size and the quality of the Russian ship.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

How was the U.S. response to Russia's warships in Havana?

Hal Klepak:

Well, normally, the U.S. has no response. It would probably be a little more dramatic if Chinese ships started to arrive. But Russian ships have always been coming in since the early 1960s. And I think the United States took no measures. I mean, there was an American submarine going into Guantanamo, which is an American base. There's nothing at all unusual about an American submarine going into an American base. That's what happens. That's where they're supposed to go.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

Does this back and forth be taken seriously or is it just posturing?

Hal Klepak:

I think it's just the reality of naval activity, at this time in the Caribbean. I think it came from the expression I would use a bit of a tempest in a teapot. Not very serious. And people tried to make it so but it's difficult to make it so.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

Even though there have even been comparisons made to the Cuban missile Crisis. Is there any validity in this?

Hal Klepak:

There is, frankly, no, reason for this hype about it. I think there's some reason for the Russians to make a lot of noise in their own media at home. Look, we can still send ships on fire abroad. And, look, we're still a great power. But I think the reason why the Pentagon, the State Department are not exactly hyped up is because it's such a small affair that when the mainstream media gets hold of something like this, they want to talk it up. I just don't think it's at all justified that talking up is being done.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

What is the difference between what is happening now and the Cold War in the 60s?

Hal Klepak:

Well, I think in the Cold War, what you saw was that the Soviet Union wanted to show Cuba that it was a real friend and would potentially cause problems for the United States if the United States attacked. Although that's easy to exaggerate. I think for the Soviet Union, it was very useful because it showed that the Soviet Union was still a communist country, truly still a revolutionary state. And the countries in the Third World, as they were then called, the natural ally and natural help against the conservative powers at the moment, of course, while there's some reflection of that kind of issue. Of course, Russia is not at all communist in any way, shape or form. It is quite rapidly capitalist. It doesn't share an ideology with Cuba of any kind, but Cuba needs it because it can't find any other friends, with its in terrible situation largely due, but not exclusively due to the United States sanctions and economic warfare against it, which are now six decades old.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

When was the last time a military exercise like this took place in Cuba?

Hal Klepak:

It was several years ago. I don't recall the exact date, but it was 4 or 5 years ago. And, it occurred, at a time when already the Cuban fleet is no longer capable of operating on the high seas. At the moment, Cuban naval vessels are essentially built in order to deal with anti-drugs and anti-illegal immigration. And therefore, since those are priorities for the United States, they're actually being built and run in order to please the Americans, not the Russians.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

Does the Cuban government rather be allied with the United States than Russia? Is that what I am hearing?

Hal Klepak:

Cuba remains a nation devoted to the Third World, devoted to, progress in a new economic order around the world. These are, of course, anathema to the United States. The only thing I think Cuba can imagine having is a correct relationship with the United States, like it has with other countries. That it's not going to be a love affair, but like it was under before 1959, it won't be a love affair and it won't be a colonial relationship or a semi colonial relationship, but it would be closer relations and mutual confidence like it already is in security.

The Cubans Coast Guard works with the United States Coast Guard and even the Navy, every day and anti-illegal immigration and disposal of toxic waste and anti-drug operations. The relationship in the security area is flourishing. It's just that, of course, the general political situation couldn't be much worse.

The United States is Cuba's natural economic partner, and it was even under Spain, while Cuba was Spain's political colony, it was the United States economic colony.

Even a when, when, officially the Spanish flag flew over Cuba. So this is a very long story of almost two centuries of United States Cuban relations, interrupted by the revolution and the economic warfare that Washington has been conducting.

But the natural state for both countries as close neighbors, 90 miles away is of course, to have a reasonably correct relationship, even if one disagrees on some overall political objectives.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

How does the United States military view Cuba?

Hal Klepak:

And my own experience with the American military, and particularly the Coast Guard, is that they definitely want closer relations. Just to take the drug issue. Narco traffic, countries from South America avoid Cuba like the plague. They fly in an amazing V shape, around the east of Cuba or the west of Cuba, to avoid the Cuban armed forces. By air or by boat, they go around Cuba. Whereas, of course, the Mexican Armed forces, much as they try, do not control their own airspace, do not control their own sea space and do not control their own land even. And of course, the Haitian armed forces are a non-entity, unfortunately. And the American armed forces are not very efficient at this either, for all kinds of reasons. We could talk about how the Cuban armed forces are efficient and make sure that nothing reaches the United States without them through Cuban water or Cuban airspace, without being intercepted. And the Americans being told, this puts Cuba as a natural ally of the United States and a serious ally.

So even with Trump and Biden these relationships, while reduced, have not been eliminated simply because they're too valuable to the United States and the Pentagon, and particularly the Coast Guard, want them to remain and be expanded.

The Cubans feel the same way. It sees the same threats as the United States does. So there's a natural, coming together of the two forces, to fight these things, which one doesn't see in other Latin American countries to the same extent.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

Do they have cooperation in counter-terrorism too?

Hal Klepak:

Cuba has asked the United States for the same kind of accords, It has an illegal immigration on terrorism. The United States for domestic political reasons, has not been in a position to accept that offer. but, of course, Cuba doesn't have a domestic terrorist threat except one coming from Florida of, of people deeply opposed to the regime, coming occasionally to blow up something or to conduct a terrorist mission.

So there isn't actually any active, terrorist cooperation left, for example, like Canada, when, when the two towers were blown up, Cuba also offered to the United States to take all the aircraft that the United States would not take into American airspace like Canada.

Cuba also offered to take those aircraft. So there was a clear expression that Cuba and the United States, agree on counterterrorism. But because, again, this is not a foreign policy issue, this is a domestic issue. It hasn't been possible to make it all work.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

Even though, you know, to say, put Cuba on the States Sponsors of Terrorism list…

Hal Klepak:

Yes, it's one of the most curious things, but it's on and off, isn't it? It depends on the government in Washington. it's not actually because the United States believes Cuba is not doing enough against terrorism.

No serious advisor can suggest such a thing, but it is clear that it is very popular, among the right wing Cubans. And the Pentagon knows it, and Home Security knows it. Homeland Security. Sorry. And the Coast Guard knows it, immigration knows it, but it's just the reality of domestic politics doesn't allow them to act on what they know.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

Last year, there was a lot of media coverage in the United States about an alleged Chinese spy base in Cuba. Does such a spy base exist?

Hal Klepak:

I think that was, again, a tempest in a teapot. A very good friends of mine went out to the supposed site and there was not a Chinese to be seen. The Chinese do not depend on Cuba for some intelligence. It has to be said that the Chinese are very careful. And in general, in Latin America their penetration has been economic. It hasn't been political or military or intelligence, although those issues are there.

The Cubans at the same time know that if they want better relations with the United States to close the relationship with China is not a good idea.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

At the same time, the Russian ships were in Havana, a Canadian Navy patrol vessel was also in Havana’s Port. What significance did these have?

Hal Klepak:

There's one thing I'm sure of is that neither the Canadian ship knew when it sailed from Canada that the Russians were going to be there, nor the Russians knew that the Canadians were going to be there. But there was no reason to stop the visits of either side because it's so routine. Canada there was some hype and questions in the House of Commons, and it was somewhat embarrassing for the government because people did say, why is a Canadian ship there with the Russian ship? And of course, the answer has to be, well, because it's absolutely normal.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

Could this visit of Russian warships impact the U.S. Cuba relations in some way?

Hal Klepak:

I don't think so. I think in the best of all worlds, it would show Washington that the policy of strangling Cuba is not a good one in the worst of all worlds. I can't see any change. The relationship is in such bad order, except on the security front. It's so bad that I don't think it can get much worse.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

How did the U.S.-Cuba relations have gotten to this low point so far?

Hal Klepak:

They haven't been good since 1959. But they have got worse and worse and worse as one government after another has tried to please domestic elements in the United States, particularly the powerful economic elements of the Cuban American community. Now we're just at the height of that. But I think added to that is the fact that because of the Cuban current crisis, many people feel in the United States feel we can close in that we can actually go move in for the kill. Now, no government, which the United States has not liked, has lasted this long.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

That's interesting because Cuban American politicians, hardliners have used Cuba's closer relations with Russia and China to justify the US policy in Cuba. But isn't the U.S. policy on Cuba what is pushing Cuba to have closer relations with Russia and China?

Hal Klepak:

There are a sufficient number of Cuban Americans opposed to the regime and a sufficient number with a great deal of money, who have studied very closely other lobbies, who make sure that United States objectives, come in as a secondary, that the first objective is to remove the Cuban government as it currently is.

I don't think that anyone seriously in Washington, and certainly not in the State Department or the Pentagon, believes that Cuba wants closer relations to Russia and China instead of closer relations with the United States.

It's that if the United States, Cuban relations are not going to be close and are indeed going to be confrontational, then anybody who comes into play, who can act as a tiny bit of counterpoise to the United States is welcome, to the Cuban government.

But it is, because there's nothing else Venezuela is weakened.The Alba countries who are supposedly in the alliance, none of them can really do much for Cuba. So so far, those connections with Latin American countries have proven to be a weak read, to say the least.

If not, indeed no read at all on which Cuba can base itself. Whereas Russia, however weak it is, is still stronger than any of them.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

So to what extent the relationship between Cuba and Russia, depends on U.S.- Cuba relations?

Hal Klepak:

I think that if Cuba could get a settlement with the United States, it would jettison its Russian relationship very quickly. Not 100%, of course, Cuba would look for balance between one variety of powers. But the key relationship to to Cuba is the relationship with the United States, as is generally the case with small powers next to great powers, Cuban foreign policy aims to end the blockade as soon as possible and get to as close, or I should say, as normal, a relationship with Washington as it possibly can and can get. And, the Russian card can be useful to show the United States that Cuba matters.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, it seemed Cuba was trying to stay neutral. More recently, president Diaz-Canel expressed his unambiguous support to Russia. What has changed?

Hal Klepak:

I think what's changed is the Cuban need. In February of 2022, towards the end of the month, Cuba was in terrible shape, but it wasn't in desperate shape. The Russian invasion goes against all of the principles of Cuban foreign policy. If you look at Cuba, what does Cuba believe in? It believes that there shouldn't be spheres of influence in the world. The great powers should not be able to say they rule over areas which are not their territory, but that they they, they call the shots. 

The Cubans say that nobody should be able to tell you what, what alliances you could join and where you can buy weapons and what economic arrangements you can join. Now, the Russians say all of those things about Ukraine. So it was extremely difficult for Cuban diplomacy to fix this. 

What has changed, I think, since the end, the two and almost a Hal Klepakf years since then, the Cuban economy has gotten much worse that the post pandemic return of tourism has not taken place except with the Canadians. There have been devastating, natural disasters at exactly the same time, where Venezuela is not able to send the fuel and a decent price for Cuba.

So the combination of factors, has meant that Cuba is a much worse a situation, 28 months later than the Russian invasion.

Liz Oliva Fernández:

Is Cuba in a position to say no to the Russians?

Hal Klepak:

I think it's still to be decided. Russia has sent some fuel and it was desperately needed. Russia has already, of course, forgiven some debt, which was helpful. Russia could send more fuel  and it could send some food, so there are things which Russia can do.

And while it's offering those things, it is very difficult for Cuba to say no. But if Russia doesn't do very much, if much of these promises or at least suggested assistance, if they don't, come about, then the Cubans will be in a stronger position to say, well, you know, you you're talking a good talk, but you're not delivering, very much

Liz Oliva Fernández:

Is it still possible for the United States to try to engage again with Cuba like Obama did?

Hal Klepak:

Oh, I think entirely, the Cuban desperation, the Cuban disappointment with the Russians in the past. The Cubans are no fools. They know perfectly well that the Russians will let them down if they have, if they feel it's in their interest to let them down with China too far away, and too disinterested. 

Cuba needs terribly, to reestablish good relations with the United States, or at least correct relations with the United States. I think it is possible. And I think it really only depends on a government like the Obama government that is courageous enough,  to say, well, you know, it's in the United States interests, to have, a policy that is, less destructive towards Cuba.